Well let's see GF-3 got passed when no one could work out the details, isn't it typical when you form a committee and spend hours putting into minutes what you could have done in seconds as an entrepreneur that the results are insured in advance? Dismal failure, but no matter let's move forward anyway, isn't that what bureaucracies do?

So GF-4 should be completed sometime in 2004-2005? They say, but who is they?

Whoever wants to say they have a say, so far that is just about everyone. I cannot believe how much I have read on this subject from Oil Company PR to EPA Bureaucracy to Manufacturers, dealers, Industry Rags. My God already, no wonder the UN can't do their job, look how many people have to agree on something, much more than this GF-4 automobile oil standards thing.

But alas my prediction?

It will never happen and GF-5 in 2006 will take place and the Pope mobile might finally get an oil change between leaders.

What about the .10 designation? Will it be a dead issue and .08 won't make the liberals happy, and us operators will be forced to higher costs and less frequency at .05, manufacturers will charge extra, warranties will be at issue the EPA will be fining customers, smog checks will be eliminating cars and Quick Lubes will be consolidated by Auto Dealerships run by Wayne Hiezenga, Roger Penske, Sonic Automotive and others, while the Manufacturers will say, we have to because of the EPA and Oil Companies will have to add the additives for far of market share reduction. Of course the political clout between Manufacturers, remembering; 'What is good for GM is good for America' and the Oil Companies with the steamroller will turn this thing into the biggest non-event you have ever seen. But alas, Chaos mean opportunity.

Some do not care who they work with for oil or filters, etc. or what the law is either way they will align themselves with strength and with the winners. If each manufacturer requests different blends many quick lubes will be forced to have several types of these different blends and thus their ROI will change, sure they will have the $75K ITC situation with the new tax law to buy more above ground steel tanks for the other a multitude of required oils, but some vehicle types will not be able to be serviced, and many of those will have free oil changes at the dealerships, meaning all the hoses, belts, wiper blades, air cleaners, fuel filters, tire rotations, etc will be done there.

Still think you are up for this industry? Some do and if you see the writing on the walls you answer would be ABSOLUTELY, bring it on, because the consumer is going to take it in the shorts and someone has to do the services for them. These are extremely exciting times for the industry, so many industries are dead with no innovation, nothing new, stagnant. Not this one, fun stuff on the horizon. There will be oil blend licensing agreements, royalties to pay, competitors exiting the market place, consolidation, and some amount of money and market share changing hands, who will win? Fancy foot work time, pay attention or be left behind. We may even see that G-5 categories from the ILSAC require .05 of al brands. Interesting way to reduce phosphorous compounds and insure that cars under 150K miles guarantee emissions inspection passing, but still realize that all this means one thing, a shift of wealth, a shift in volumes, a shift in frequency of changes, a shift in market share, before a single shift of gears. Care to opine?

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